Managing Editor Alex Ortuno
The winter season is known for its cold days with holiday decorations and snow days. For North Central Texas this winter season, people may end up in shorts and floral button-up shirts rather than parkas and winter boots.
According to the Climate Prediction Center, North Central Texas is projected to see a 68% chance of above average temperatures.
While temperatures may not be as cold for our festive holidays, precipitation may not be expected to bring days of rain and snow.
The region is expected to see a 48% chance of below-average precipitation.
Bianca Garcia, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Fort Worth, said that the projected conditions are expected due to La Niña, a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that brings warmer temperatures and less rain in the Southern United States.
“We do have a La Niña condition in effect so most likely we’ll have above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for our area.
While warmer temperatures are expected across the region, they are only a possibility and not a certainty. Cold days are still a possibility.
“What they’re forecasting is an average over that scene of a time period but there are times where cooler temperatures occurred in that three-month period. Just when they average out, it ends up being warmer overall,” Garcia said.
Other cold events are still a possibility such as a cold snap but all depends on the conditions and if they are favorable for such events to form.
“We say that periods of colder weather are always possible, regardless [if] we are in La Niña or El Niño. And that just depends on the conditions as we go through the season. It’s very difficult to say whether it will be no colder than average temperatures or snow or anything like that right over the next seven to 10 days,” said Garcia.
Even during the winter season in North Central Texas, severe weather can still be a threat. An example being the EF-4 Sunnydale-Garland-Rowlett tornado that struck only a day after Christmas 2015, leaving 10 dead and $26 million in damage, according to the National Centers of Environmental Information.
“Severe weather can happen any time of the year, not just in the spring or in the fall. So if the conditions are favorable, we’ve got a lot of warm moist air coming in from the Gulf and the stronger system and those conditions align and it’s possible to see strong or severe weather. But those finer details aren’t worked out until the shorter term,” Garcia said.
Droughts can become an issue in warmer conditions and a lack of precipitation.
“We’re under La Niña and winter conditions. It can sometimes result in increased fire weather threat and increased drought conditions due to drier and warmer weather, further lack of precipitation. So it is possible that drought conditions may develop over the next few months,” said Garcia.
North Central Texas has many counties under an “abnormally dry” situation and some far eastern counties are under a “moderate drought,” according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
